Email threat landscape: Q2 2026 trends and insights

Summary

Microsoft's Q2 2026 threat intelligence report indicates a significant decline in phishing activity following the disruption of the Tycoon2FA platform. However, threat actors are increasingly shifting to social engineering tactics on Microsoft Teams, particularly vishing, with malicious call attempts rising sharply. The report also highlights the use of automated and multi-stage attack chains in campaigns, including a large-scale BEC campaign and a complex phishing campaign delivering malware.

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Share Link copied to clipboard! TagsAdversary-in-the-middle (AiTM)Credential theftPhishingSocial engineeringThreats intelligenceBusiness email compromiseCybercrimeSocial engineering and phishingContent typesResearchProducts and servicesMicrosoft DefenderMicrosoft Defender for EndpointMicrosoft Defender for Office 365TopicsActionable threat insightsThreat intelligence The second quarter of 2026 (April–June) was largely defined by the continuing downstream effects following Microsoft’s Digital Crimes Unit-led disruption efforts against the Tycoon2FA phishing-as-a-service (PhaaS) platform in March. Phishing volume linked to the platform fell 92% from pre-disruption averages, including QR code phishing and CAPTCHA-gated phishing both declining from their March highs. Despite ongoing efforts to rebuild operations, Tycoon2FA did not recover its previous scale or influence during Q2, and no single service emerged to replace the platform at comparable scale. Inside tycoon2fa Infrastructure, tradecraft, and detections › These trends reflect both the measurable impact that disruption operations can have on phishing ecosystems and the adaptability of threat actors as they diversify delivery channels. At the same time, Microsoft Threat Intelligence observed continued growth in Teams-based social engineering, particularly voice phishing (vishing), with weekly malicious call attempts reaching nearly ten times the mid-2025 baseline by the end of the quarter. This activity illustrates how threat actors continue to expand beyond email into trusted workplace communication platforms where communications may appear more trustworthy to users. Microsoft detected approximately 7.6 billion email-based phishing threats throughout the quarter, with monthly volumes declining modestly from 2.7 billion in April to 2.4 billion in June. Credential phishing remained the dominant objective behind malicious payloads, while business email compromise (BEC) activity largely returned to historical norms after a brief, anomalous surge in April. Notable campaigns observed during the quarter also demonstrated how threat actors combine automation, trusted services, and multi-stage delivery chains to scale operations. These campaigns ranged from an automated BEC campaign that reached more than 67,000 users across 42,000 organizations in under three hours, to a multi-stage phishing campaign that used nested EML files, calendar invitations, and a Microsoft authentication redirect to deliver malware. Q2 AiTM token compromise April phishing campaign tactics, detections, and mitigations › This blog provides a view of email threat activity across the second quarter of 2026, highlighting key trends in phishing techniques, payload delivery, and threat actor behavior observed by Microsoft Threat Intelligence. We examine shifts in QR code and CAPTCHA-gated phishing activity, malicious payload trends, BEC activity, the growth of Teams-based threats, and notable campaigns observed during the quarter. We also provide recommendations and Microsoft Defender detections to help organizations identify and mitigate evolving threats while prioritizing defensive measures. Tycoon2FA Q2 disruption impact The disruption operation that Microsoft’s Digital Crimes Unit launched against Tycoon2FA infrastructure in early March continued to produce measurable results throughout Q2 2026. After falling 15% in March and another 22% in April, Tycoon2FA-linked phishing volume dropped 74% in May to just 1.5 million messages, then fell another 20% in June to 1.2 million, by far the lowest monthly volumes observed in at least a year. For reference, the average monthly volume of phishing messages linked to Tycoon2FA during the second half of 2025 was 15.1 million. By the end of Q2, volumes were running at roughly 8% of that baseline, representing a 92% total decline since the disruption operation began. email threat landscape Q1 trends that shaped Q2 activity › Figure 1. Tycoon2FA monthly malicious messages volume (July 2025–June 2026) Tycoon2FA’s influence across two primary phishing tactics, QR code lures and CAPTCHA-gated landing pages, also continued to decline throughout the quarter: CAPTCHA-gated phishing: Tycoon2FA’s share of CAPTCHA-gated phishing sites fell from 41% in March to 16% in April and 12% by June, down from a peak of 76% in December 2025. QR code phishing: The share of QR code campaigns redirecting to Tycoon2FA domains decreased from 20% in March to 17% in April and 14% by June, down from a peak of 33% in November 2025. These declines indicate that the platform’s customer base has not migrated to replacement infrastructure at anything close to the scale they previously operated. After being forced off Cloudflare, which had provided anti-analysis protection that made Tycoon2FA pages harder to scan and take down, the service continued to rely on infrastructure hosted on the .RU top-level domain (TLD), a shift that began in late March. More than 40% of newly observed Tycoon2FA domains used .RU registrations throughout Q2. While this reflects an ongoing effort to find replacement hosting, Tycoon2FA’s role in the phishing ecosystem has nonetheless been significantly diminished and the pace of recovery has been slow. QR code phishing attacks After peaking at 18.7 million attacks in March, the highest monthly volume in at least a year, QR code phishing declined for three consecutive months in Q2. Volume fell 7% in April to 17.4 million, then dropped more sharply in May (-38%) and June (-22%), closing the quarter at 8.3 million attacks. By June, QR code phishing had returned to levels last seen in mid-2025. Figure 2. Trend of QR code phishing attacks by weekly volume (January 2026–June 2026) The delivery methods used in QR code attacks shifted notably during Q2. PDF attachments remained the dominant vehicle throughout, but their dominance weakened after April: PDF attachments peaked at 79% of QR code attacks in April before falling to 59% in May and 58% in June. By raw volume, malicious PDFs containing QR codes dropped more than 60% between April and June. DOC/DOCX attachments moved in the opposite direction, increasing 30% in May to account for 38% of QR code payloads, the highest share since December 2025. By June, DOC/DOCX payloads reached 40% of QR code attacks. This swap between PDF and DOC/DOCX dominance is a pattern that has recurred throughout the past year, as operators appear to rotate between delivery formats. Email-embedded QR codes, which had surged 336% in March and accounted for 5% of QR code attacks, effectively disappeared in Q2. This delivery method dropped to near-zero across all three months, leaving QR code phishing almost entirely an attachment-based tactic. Figure 3. QR code phishing delivery method share by month (January-June 2026) CAPTCHA-gated phishing tactics After accumulating to nearly 12 million attacks in March, the highest monthly volume observed over the past year, CAPTCHA-gated phishing declined sharply throughout Q2. Volume fell 32% in April to 8.2 million, then dropped another 65% in May and 24% in June, closing the quarter at just 2.2 million attacks. Since the March peak, CAPTCHA-gated phishing has fallen more than 81%, reaching its lowest monthly volume in more than a year. Figure 4. CAPTCHA-gated phishing volume (January 2026–June 2026) The rapid rotation of delivery methods that characterized Q1 continued into Q2, with no single payload type maintaining the top position for more than one or two months: PDF attachments surged to 63% of CAPTCHA-gated attacks in April, the highest single-payload share observed in the past year, after more than quadrupling in March. This dominance was short-lived, however. PDF volumes dropped 69% in May and another 70% in June, falling to just 22% of attacks by the end of the quarter. HTML attachments, which had been a major delivery vector through January (37% of attacks), declined sharply during Q2. After declining to 8% in April, HTML payloads

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